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Macroeconomics  |  April 08, 2013 12:46:31

How long dam last?

As I wrote in last year's annual analysis , "time between crisis events is reduced. Events that 5 years ago would have been regarded as an extraordinary crisis "event at least a decade", we are now witnessing every moment. Just increasing the frequency of these events, together with their increasing intensity should be the strongest warning signal. "

Not only that these words are still valid, their importance increases. At that time, a significant crisis events separated by several months. Now this period is even shorter. What is it?

Maybe the fact that the Fed will announce "endless QE" China closes currency swap with Great Britain, the Fed subsidizes only European banks this year more than 1 billion dollars (ECB obviously too slow), Germanycalls for repatriation of its gold, GLD around development (who want to pay in the near future), as well as attention would not miss the war in Mali, Japan is trying to devalue its currency, the new governor of the central bank is taking unprecedented steps , events in Cyprus, the pressure Turkey to stop using gold as a medium for trade with Iran, the head of UniCredit Bank statement that depositors should participate in the losses of banks(Or would place a deposit to get bank shares) ... and I could go on for a while.

When the frequency of events two years ago, it remained valid for more than a year (not to mention time 6-7 years ago), not as in a few months as now. Some of the above mentioned events must be called even today are not extraordinary, but just one sentence are announced in the news (if at all).

Slowly emergency start getting used to, respectively, the boundaries of what is considered to be an extraordinary event has significantly shifted. While this is nice, it does not mean that such events have a less negative impact than before. On the contrary.

The amount of pebbles and stones falling out from the dam increases. Not only that. This will disrupt the entire dam and begin to fall out of it, becoming much larger stones and every other tripped stone or stone dam weakens more and more.

Governments and central banks are doing what they can, but patched the dam has not (and will not) do. We can have that in mind.

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