Currencies  |  April 09, 2013 13:49:09

Bubble Vs. Fed and the labor market

Opening yesterday's trading after a work week nabitom U.S. market has not brought anything, what would the markets for at least a little rose from the dust. German industrial production data nerozhýbali or German stocks (because new data were statistically better, and that only through review of recent data down.) Therefore, neither the growth of the euro long nevydržal. The deeper data to come tonight, when we saw a more marked slowdown in China inflation (consumer from 3.2% to 2.1% inter-annually, producers with prices a year are down). This can mean less economic growth of braking, he sent euro and copper to new highs. We'll see whether it will súdruhom in China also meet inflation below 2%, or say unto you by the Western pattern that Takumi to price stability again im not needed.

In the minds of traders still resonates American labor market and for good reasons. The outcome was the creation of jobs and 50% below expectations, despite the fact the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since December 2008. And of course another schism from Fed governor although the labor market is developing better than splashing the U.S. central bank and still have waited even better than the market (although 15 of the 82 analysts Bloomberg splashed reduce the unemployment rate, it is still as less than 1 in 5 of them, that is little probable event), it still is not what he wants to see Fed. They started the discussions about vyhadzovaní people from registration, because "not otherwise be yet not" lower the unemployment rate especially when the lowest rate of participation by the 70th years. Of course, this is partly true, labor force population over the age of 16 decreased by almost 500 thousand.However, the population has increased by 160 thousand. However, this is only one side of the coin. The number of young population (16 24 years) in the U.S. has stagnated, but those which are in the records of gradually declining, their only 54.5%. The rate of participation by the young has fallen even faster than in the whole economy. The registers were culled 175 thousand. people. Number of people at a young and middle-aged (25 54) likewise essentially stagnant, and we have also seen phaseout of records (-130 thousand).. This is what is most interesting is that the fastest increased the population over 55 years, and about 181 thousand. And here are people already before dôchodkom whose productivity declines. So with the young and middle age we see stagnovanie respectively. small growth in the population and their decommissioning from registration. Population growth lately pulls rather older generations over 55 years.So America is aging and decline rates of participation by the gradually spôsobovaný not just statistical tricks but also prirodzeným aging population.

It was the first part to look at it, but we have also processed the BLS data that we may see, how many jobs has been lost from 2007 to 2009 and akých sectors and who now pulls the labor market recovery. On the chart we see the production (green), construction (purple), business services (Yellow) and also jobs in the education sector and zdravotnom (red). The government is displayed in gray flies. The data are in thousands and terms of monthly change.

Even at first glance to see that the most in times of crisis suffered manufacturing, construction, trade and services. Massive depopulation of jobs launched in February 2008, in March 2009 was canceled 830 thousand. jobs, and in February 2010 their ubudlo 8.74 million has since been created them 5.9 million Approximately two-thirds of jobs are thus back. Government sector is relatively constant, with the exception of employment in early 2010 due to population censuses (these places to even canceled in the summer of the same year), we see only minor changes. The government employs about 16% of the workforce, the peak of the crisis it was 17%, 16% before the crisis. Nothing great. You obtain more remarkable when you compare how many jobs were lost and how many created during the said period of growth and decline of jobs. Construction, manufacturing and trade sectors are to be out of the crisis yet nespämatali.Construction lost nearly 2 million jobs, since the beginning of economic recovery can restore 15% of them. Restoring realitného market has started only at the end of 2012, we will see how will flourish. Greatest number of jobs has lost 2.3 million manufacturing, restored about 25% of them. Trade and transport 2.2 million lost, recovered about 50% of them. Financial sector 550 thousand divorces. people hired back only 20%. The U.S. is said as a country where there is considerable energy boom. Extractive sector (oil rigs bane +) lost 70 thousand. jobs, but then their created almost 200 thousand. So something on it will be. And now the winners education, business services and relax. There is either not lose jobs, or have them create more than was previously lost.About what kind of place is this? The care and education leading healthcare and social welfare, for them this is education. So more and more people are needed in order to take care of other Americans. Whether you're ill, obese or old. Respite care, and it is especially fun and knowledge associated with reštauračnými accommodations and services. Leading restaurants, bars, casinos, arts and entertainment. Ever the strongest sectors are professional services for business. And those are accountants, lawyers, employment services and administration.

So the structure of the U.S. economy is in a crisis are remarkably changed and the jobs that disappeared in the manufacturing, construction and trade has now made up in the care of the sick and old (which gives zmyslel, since the population is aging and tučnie), an increasingly complicated regulation may need more officers and Lawyers are well and strong sectors where it is,drinks and entertainment. We'll see, or even gets Industrial Revolution 2.0. For the structure of the U.S. economy, it was probably healthier.

Today's marketing is so far peaceful and without significant changes, the volatility is likely to take care closest to China again, tomorrow morning at 4:00 will be the publication of the trade balance.

Author: Tomáš Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | trading on the stock exchanges TRIM Broker

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