Markets  |  April 10, 2013 13:32:06

Slovenia as number 6 SP500 index ended a series rastoklesov

Equity markets in the U.S. yesterday recorded growth. This is the second seance in a row, when the index rose SP500. That has not happened to him more than three weeks. Never in the past has not yet happened so regular alternation GROWTH and declines. The reason for the growth was yesterday Chinese inflation, which fell more-than-splashed as well as the President of the Fed's comments that the economy is still far from the state, which would have claimed a Fed. Yester cocktail stock: Dow Jones +0.41% SP500 +0.35%, Nasdaq Composite +0.48%.

JGB begins to grow volatility

While the stock market the last three weeks rotate your growth and declines, the Japanese market has woken up a bond of lethargy and most prominent movements in the financial markets, we see the last day on the Japanese government dlhopisoch. Who at the end of 2011 was the Japanese market Debenture least volatile of the 25 countries monitored EFFAS, is currently the second place just behind Greece. Then, the Japanese central bank announced a doubling of the volume of QE, the debenture market started to behave really volatile. Last friday yield on 10-year dlhopisoch reached a record low at 0.315%, but then within a few hours the yield almost doubled. While the movement of bond prices was only a modest, with a yield This was the biggest earnings growth for the past 10 years. It appears that the manipulation of interest rates on Central Bank hit its first limit.Traders are likely pattern after U.S. traders took advantage of the notification Shop the selection of revenue. While we do not think it should go on to lose confidence in the Japanese market Debenture.

The reason is that the Japanese Ministry of Finance together with the central bank can do if necessary to make a purchase as many securities as will be necessary. Commercial banks because I will not risk the collapse of Japan, because the same thing, when such a development was compromised. Thus, even when the nearest time we can expect volatility in the JGB, it does not mean a complete loss of investor confidence in Japan.

Slovenia as number 6

While Japanese yields, despite their growth remain among the lowest in the world, has the opposite problem Slovenia. While Slovenia weight still asking for help last night ruling party chief SD Lukisc said that the landscape you might need help, you are not the tools that it is advertised. Can is use the 2 billion euros in bank reserves ... Overall problem but the landscape is much greater. Slovenian banks after the collapse realitného market remained on balance sheets to 7 billion bad loans, which represent up to 20% of GDP. In the summer should begin the process of transformation of these bad loans in the bank. This means that in June will need to notify the landscape or ask or not ask for help. According to analysts, will need foreign assistance in the zone of 6-8 billion euros.Given that interest rates on Slovenian debt remain high and it is questionable further access to the capital market might have in the foreseeable time to ask. Interest rates will be lower and the debt ratio significantly nenarastie. Landscape has a current debt ratio around 60% of GDP. The situation with the sale of bonds, it could complicate that this year, Slovenia needs to refinance more than 2 billion euros of debt.

If a country really requests for help will go on the six eurozone countries, which somehow require from international assistance. Given that the EMU has 17 members, will have third euro somehow saved.

Macroeconomic data from the U.S. 'expectations,

Who eurozone struggling with their own problems in the U.S. traders follow the main macroeconomic data.While the majority of February macroeconomic results ended above expectation currently seeing the opposite trend. For the third week end with the results of the U.S. significantly worse. In the table below we can see the macro data from the U.S. for the past week. Of the 16 results ended only three figures above expectations.

Also profited from these developments, the common currency, no current is mainly traders are stumbling to the debenture European market, where the situation has stabilized considerably. Italian as well as Spanish yields moving ahead in decline. Largely are a team expectations that the ECB will seek to improve the situation in the periphery.

Outlook for today

Common currency today is growing again. This is the sixth profitable day for the euro. Underpinning is the Gender drop in revenue, and therefore reverse capital inflows into the euro area, for example, also from Japan. Moreover, it helps even the modern-day great auction of Italian Treasury bills. The macroeconomic calendar is empty today, so watching the main evening FOMC Minutes. Given that it is living tone recent months earlier hawk, we could see the publication after it drop the euro. Any decline but we consider it interesting to buy. View we had on EURUSD derived growth.

Author: Jan Beňák | TRIM Broker, as | trading on the stock exchanges TRIM Broker

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