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Commodities  |  April 13, 2013 17:04:20

How will the price of oil? View up to the year ahead

Weak demand, but also geopolitical risks - to predict the price of oil is really not easy.

The current situation

Brent crude oil prices stood at around 110 USD per barrel (the price is in the range from 100 to 120 USD mostly ranges from early 2011) due to a combination of slightly more optimistic outlook of the world economy (and thus higher expected consumption growth) and continuing tensions in the Middle East. Price fluctuations primarily related to short-term fluctuations in market sentiment triggered by current events (the published data, the European debt crisis).

WTI Crude oil is still held by approximately 10 to 20 USD below due to the continued production of relative surplus in the interior of the United States and Canada, and inadequate logistical infrastructure does not allow a sufficient volume of traffic onGulf Coast.

Near term (one month)

Do not expect any significant permanent price shifts. Recovery of the world economy should help keep the price close to current levels, or (if they come more encouraging data) to support its growth. In the region of the Middle East do not expect in the foreseeable future appeasement, so should continue to keep the risk premium, possibly by an increase.

Another factor potentially influencing the price of oil is extremely loose monetary policy of major central banks and related excess liquidity in the financial markets. This liquidity can also occasionally directed to oil and thus may promote growth trends. Currently therefore the balance of risks towards the higher price of oil.

What is 6 monthly and annual outlook for oil prices, can be found on the web Investment

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