Research (Česká spořitelna)
Macroeconomics  |  April 15, 2013 09:35:57

Macro outlook for the 16th week - industry, real estate and inflation in the U.S., the ZEW and Ifo Epropě

Compared to the previous week will be published in the USA in particular, significantly more macro-economic data, but none of them will be paramount and so should be any market reaction rather muted. The most interesting is industrial production, which is expected continuation of moderate growth. The market would be sensitive to low figure due to the prevailing fear of repeating the economic slowdown from previous years. Of the residential property sector will be published the number of new home construction and building permits. Data should confirm the ongoing recovery in this sector. On Thursday, the pair published index of leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed index.On Tuesday there will be published in the U.S. CPI development should confirm the low inflation and therefore no problem for the Fed and the continuation of quantitative easing. Particularly Philadelphia Fed will be an interesting indicator of the state of the economy. In Europe, the most interesting cyclical ZEW index for Germany, which tells the evolving state of the German economy. More importantly, however, the indexes and purchasing managers index IFO next week. The U.S. Fed's Beige Book published as an alternative source of information about the development of the economy. As usual, speaks during the week a solid batch of Fed officials.

In the Czech Republic next week, no significant data - PPI and current account are not monitored. The crown remains above 25.80, last week I touched on this floor 25.95, when it was detrimental expression of CNB (nothing new, but the market just as truly as reading foreign exchange interventions may be) and the recommendations from UBS to long EURCZK.My space for long EURCZK invisible - better data (industry, trust), the smaller fiscal restrictions and negligible threat of deflation this year leads us to the opposite expectation.

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