Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  April 15, 2013 16:11:00

The crown is now on the level of 26.00 CZK / EUR attempt

Adverse impact on the numbers of Chinese Central European currencies was limited and concentrated within the first hour of today's session, when the exchange slightly lost. Much more pronounced reaction to frustration of the Chinese GDP Q113, in March industrial production and investment activity recorded commodities led by gold and stock markets. Of Central European currencies remained under pressure in essence, only the Polish zloty, which feared afternoon market inflation data for February, which was finally confirmed. Further deceleration of inflation raises expectations that the central bank rate cuts cycle resumes. Crown eventually bettered by one third percent. While morning still attacked the level of 25.95 CZK / EUR in the afternoon was already more than ten cents below. Most notably better off today the Hungarian forint, which scored roughly three quarters percent.

In terms of external balance is Czech koruna safe, which was confirmed today released the February balance of payments data. That brought a big surprise in the form of high current account surplus, which reached a level of CZK 27.7 billion, significantly surpassed even the most optimistic expectations of the market. The main reason was the trade balance, as indicated previously published data on foreign trade. Surprisingly high surplus recorded and current transfers. Positive trends in the current account deficit would also have to persist throughout this year. Primarily due to foreign trade, we expect a further increase surplus exists for this year quite decent chance that it will be the first time since 1993, recorded a current account surplus (according to our estimate of 0.1% of GDP). In addition to the balance of payments statistics published today in producer prices for March.Industrial producer prices during the third month of the year so stagnated and lagged behind market expectations. Disinflationary trends confirmed the view of the dynamics of the year, where we have seen slowing from 1.3% in February to 1.0% in March. More important for the central bank, however, is the development of agricultural prices because these prices influence future developments in food prices in the consumer basket. Agricultural prices were flat in March this time. Annual growth of these prices then decelerated from 15.6% y / y in February to 12.5% ??in March. Prices in agriculture grew strongly in the second half of last year, due to the below-average harvest home. Now the price seems to have stabilized in the sector and crucial for further development will be when the new harvest. Food prices in the consumer basket, however, due to the delayed impact may still slightly in the coming months to grow.

Tomorrow already from home will not bring any economic indicators. This will dominate trading technical nature with regard to investor sentiment in the region and global markets. An important technical resistance continues to be an area around 25.95, then found support at 25.70. So if you come significant momentum should the course be tomorrow in the band hold.

Czech swap yield curve is now shifted slightly lower when followed by a decline in euro curves recorded in connection with the rise in risk aversion after bad Chinese data. Czech government bond yields also dropped. Demand stimulates perception of Czech government bonds as a regional "safe" assets.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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