Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  April 16, 2013 16:21:16

IMF reduces estimates for global growth this year to 3.3%, the euro area will fall by 0.3%, the ECB should intervene aggressively

Analysts IMF today lowered its forecast for global growth this year from the originally estimated 3.5 to 3.3%. In 2012, the world economy grew by 3.2%. In 2014, then in the global economy should accelerate to 4% compared to the January forecast, calculating the value of 4.1%.

Contraction of the euro area this year widen to 0.3% in January compared to an estimated -0.2%. The losers would be the big EU countries had alongside Spain, Italy and France stand also. Estimates for the decline in Italy rose from -1 to -1.5% for Spain, from -1.5 to -1.6% for France and from +0.3 to -0.1%.
German GDP growth this year was only 0.6% in January compared to an estimated +0.9%

The IMF called on the ECB to the model of the U.S. and Japan used "aggressive" methods of monetary support to end two years of economic contraction, which makes it difficult or complicated successfully overcomeEU debt crisis. ECB, according to the IMF room for rate cuts. Europe in economic development significantly lags behind the rest of the world. High requirements for savings in the public sector and in government spending stifles the economy of each country and make it difficult to cope with the symptoms of the debt crisis.

IMF raises growth forecasts Japan's GDP this year from the originally estimated 1.2 to 1.6%. For 2014, the estimates rose from 0.7 to 1.4%.
Estimates for U.S. growth have been adjusted from 2 to 1.9%.
Developing countries this year should grow by 5.3% in January, compared to 5.5% and from 1.3% in the already developed economies. In 2012, developing economies grew by 5.1%.
Estimates for this year's growth in China declined from January's 8.2 to 8%, then in India from 5.9 to 5.7%. Brazilian expansion then reaches only 3% and not initially estimated 3.5%.

According to the IMF prices remain globally under control. The prices of major commodities should fall this year by 2%

American index S & P 500 during Q1 of this year grew by about 10% and the Japanese Nikkei 225 by 19.3% while the European Stoxx 50 fell by 0.5%.

Among currencies so far this year holds directly the Japanese yen, which weakened against the dollar by as much as 12%, brtská pound depreciated by 6% and the euro by 0.5%.

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MMF snižuje odhady letošního globálního růstu na 3,3%, eurozóna poklesne o 0,3%, ECB by měla agresivně zasáhnout

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