Research (Conseq)
Markets  |  April 17, 2013 15:43:37

Slovenia: The exemplary pupil troublemaker?

When in 2004 Slovenia entered the EU was seen as the largest of the new entrants reinforcements between the then newcomers, mostly countries of Central and Eastern Europe. In particular, thanks to the experience of "polotržní" economy that gained in times of former socialist Yugoslavia as part of its most advanced reliable. Even so, when mind that the economic structure of Slovenia is quite different from countries where central planning system, on the one hand, leaving a deep furrow, but where at the same time then also economic transformation undergone radical changes in the ownership structure.Slovenia have "drove" his evolutionary evolving post-Yugoslav model, which for a time worked very well due to its high degree of openness of Slovenia's economy is showing. Model, which was based on a very strong share of the state, the public sector and various types of cooperatives and community organizations to own and a very major corporations, including banks. Neither the year 2007, as real economic development and Slovenia reputation in the eyes of the investment community, not negatively changed - this country joined the euro-zone and the example that the price impact of the adoption of the euro did not confess visible dimension. But by then, the economy did not rest on a stable basis, but on explosives, demonstrated in the following years.

The Slovenian economy is characterized at present? In comparison with it is the Czech beaters, and it is nothing to say. Cruel got hit in the most problematic crisis year - 2009, when it fell by almost 8%, last year's decline was 2%, and this year should not be repeated. The Slovenian economy does not invest: cumulative decline in investment was for the past five years 60%. All this is accompanied by a relatively high unemployment rate (10% according to Eurostat methodology) and not being disciplined budget deficit.

It is not so surprising that in a situation of a steep economic downturn, especially in activities that generate future economic prosperity, the Slovenian, connected with the public sector, banks found themselves in a situation where it is difficult without taking significant measures to survive.

Despite all the troubles Slovenian economy and its banks is parallel with Cyprus severely lame and also recipes to rescue these economies are vastly different.The Slovenian economy needs to change the ownership structure of its key corporations, remove links, which are sometimes seen as a clientelist, and start economic growth by creating the conditions for a recovery in investment activity. Then we will have at the end of this decade to get back to what she was used to - among admired.

Petr Zahradnik,

Chief Economist

Conseq Investment Management, Inc.,

member of the National Economic Council (NERV)



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